Three weeks remaining. That’s it. Well, at least that’s all 18 teams in the National Football League have left. For now, there basically are eight or nine teams fighting for spots No. 10 through 14.
Meanwhile, in our last column before Santa makes his trip down 500 million or so chimneys this weekend, we offer our holiday edition of random thoughts.
No. 1: I am a huge fan of throwback uniforms. Love ’em. I wouldn’t mind if teams wore a different throwback every other week or so. But there was one I had a problem with this past weekend.
Look, Titans. If you’re going to wear the powder blues and your coach is going to wear the Bum Phillips cowboy hat, and the crowd has “luv Ya Blue” signs everywhere, you better (expletive) win.
But they didn’t, and in the end it was the Texans who gave a certain finger to the lovely people of Nashville. (Insert rolling eyes emoji here.)
No. 2: It’s obvious this isn’t a college football column, but what’s the rush for so many of these players to get into the NFL. Oh, the money. Well, the money is fine, but can someone explain to me why so many players are opting out?
We’ve now got guys who will be drafted well out of the first round deciding “it’s in their best interests” not to play. Well, it was in your best interest to accept the scholarship to go to school, but we’re more worried about the 1 percent chance someone will suffer an injury that wouldn’t heal by the time the combines come around in a few months.
Gimme a break. It’s out of control. You’re partially in a position to be drafted because your school and your coach gave you a chance to be a star. Return the favor and play one more game. (Oh, and be the teammate your future colleagues in the NFL would want you to be to them.)
In my last random thought of the week, I offer a shout out to a good friend who has been along with me for this football prognosticating ride the past few seasons.
As many of you know, “Uncle Big Nick” lost his dad to a stroke earlier this month. Due to my daughter being sick Tuesday, I couldn’t make the services, but I wanted to give him and the entire Marse family a virtual hug. And we can’t wait for UBN to get back on the making picks with me once again.
And speaking of, it’s on to the picks, as we try to keep the hot pace we’ve had the past few weeks, .
NOTES: All spreads, money lines and over/under totals (as of late Wednesday evening) are provided by , which is the official odds partner of . Home team is listed in CAPS.
WEEK 16: THE TOP 5 BEST BETS
1, Over 37.5 in Washington at NY JETS / Sunday at noon
Um, the one thing Washington does (fairly) well is throw the football. The one thing the Commanders do terribly is stop the other team from scoring. Like any team. Even the Jets.
In fact, no team in the NFL attempts more passes than Washington, and this might be the only team in the NFL that actually can make Zach Wilson look good. (Oh wait. He kinda looked good against the Texans a couple of weeks ago. Now, I like this pick even more.)
And as I write this, Wilson is in concussion protocol, but there’s a decent chance he will play Sunday. Even if he doesn’t, I don’t care if it’s Trevor Siemian. The Jets will still be able to score at least 20, which will be more than enough to get this game over 37.5.
Score: Jets (-3) 24, Commanders 20
2, ML parlay (-117), Broncos, Chiefs and Eagles to win
Leg 1 / DENVER over New England / Sunday at 7:15 p.m.
Let’s get the toughest leg out of the way first, and my handicap is simple: The Broncos are hanging on for dear life in the AFC playoff race, and Sean Payton will not let them give up without a big fight.
And you know who likely won’t have a big fight in them on Christmas Eve night across the country away from their families in a cluster blank ending of a season? The New England Patriots. I simply can’t see this team caring enough to put up a similar effort to what we’ve seen the past few weeks.
And the way the Broncos have been playing defense under former Archbishop Shaw quarterback Vance Joseph (yeah, I had to throw that in there), I’m not sure New England will score more than 10 points.
Score: Broncos (-6.5) 26, Patriots 10 (Total: Over 34.5)
Leg 2 / KANSAS CITY over Las Vegas / Monday at noon
We all can see something is wrong with the Chiefs. Even when they win, they look discombobulated, and apparently even Taylor Swift can figure that out. (You hit longshot bingo card if you had Taylor Swift and Vance Joseph being mentioned in the same column.)
That being said, no matter what is going on, the Chiefs know how to beat the Raiders. As of now, it’s to the tune of six in a row and 11 of the past 12. Oh, and if that’s not good enough, Kansas City has won 16 of 18. And with a small shot at the No. 1 seed – but a better chance to put the final clamps down on the AFC West – this should be a fait accompli.
Score: Chiefs (-10) 28, Raiders 13 (Total: Under 41.5)
Leg 3 / PHILADELPHIA over NY Giants / Monday at 3:30 p.m.
So when we win the first two legs, it’ll just come down to Eagles fans not booing Santa Claus. (They wouldn’t boo a dude that had been working like 36 hours straight, would they? It is Philly.)
The Eagles get their biggest rivals (against whom they have won 11 of the past 13 and 15 of 18) with two of three to end the season, and they now need this game like crazy after losing three in a row for the first time since Nick Sirianni lost the second, third and fourth games of his coaching career.
As tired as Philly is, it would be a big surprise for them not to play one of their best games of the season here, especially if Dallas wins at Miami the day before.
Score: Eagles (-11.5) 33, Giants 13 (Total: Over 42.5)
3, Teaser, Jaguars and Cowboys
Teaser explanation: At most books, a bettor can parlay two teams in a “teaser” and get 6 points of cushion for each bet. However, it costs -125 to play and – like a parlay – both legs must hit to cash the ticket.
Leg 1 / Jacksonville (+7) over TAMPA BAY / Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
Couldn’t we all see this as one of the more entertaining games of the season, and in saying that I obviously am thinking Trevor Lawrence is going to play. And why wouldn’t I? If he came back from an ankle injury that looked like might last into mini-camp next May, why wouldn’t he come back from a silly old concussion?
Besides, Tampa Bay has won three in a row following a streak of five losses in six games. I don’t buy it.
The Bucs have been golden for me as of late in picking them in teasers, and they’re not bad to go against either, because they play a bunch of close games. As I said … entertaining. And super tight.
Score: Jaguars (+1) 33, Bucs 30 (Total: Over 43)
Leg 2 / Dallas (+7.5) over MIAMI / Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
OK, let’s try this again. I can hear Uncle Big Nick yelling in my ear, “It’s a simple handicap! Take the Cowboys at home, and take their opponent on the road.” But what isn’t simple, UBN, is the fact the Dolphins stink against good opponents.
Even if Tyreek is able to come back, I am not buying all is right with the Fins once again, and I would be very surprised if the Cowboys put up back-to-back stinkers – no matter where it’s played.
I expect Micah Parsons to make his acquaintance with Tua early and often, and if Miami can’t find a way to get Raheem Mostert going early, this could be a long day for the home team.
Score: Cowboys (+1.5) 31, Dolphins 26 (Total: Over 51)
4, Over 37 in Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH / Saturday at 3:30 p.m.
All day when writing these picks, I kept avoiding this game. Everything in my NFL handicapping soul tells me there’s no way Mike Tomlin can let his team play this poorly AGAIN, but when you get burned 2 weeks in a row, it’s kind of hard to believe.
However, after writing my original handicap, it jumped out at me! The over isn’t just a great play here with mediocre defenses in a total of less than 40, but it’s a great play. I especially love it with a weather forecast that is pretty decent – at least for Pittsburgh in the middle of December. I guess in Jake Browning I trust. How can ya not, huh?
The Bengals have played to the over in five of the past six, and have gone WAY over in four of those. Meanwhile, the Steelers have gone over in two in a row, and I can’t get past how poorly their defense has played in those games.
As far as the game pick, I hate being with Mabel and her buddies, but I can’t back Mason Rudolph, Mitch Trubisky or whomever is playing QB for the Steelers (even if Kenny Pickett comes back). Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that the Bengals have won four of the past six in the series and haven’t lost in Pittsburgh since 2020.
Score: Bengals (-2) 30, Steelers 21
5, Under 47 in Detroit at MINNESOTA / Sunday at noon
I wanted to go against the public and take the Vikings getting 3 at home (it costs -130 to take the Lions at -3), but I simply do not trust Nick Mullens after what I saw last week.
What I do trust is for Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores to have a solid game plan against Jared Goff. In a game the Vikings HAVE to have to stay alive not only in the division race, but just as importantly the playoff race, the defense is what is going to keep them alive.
And on the other side, I am confident the Lions will be able to hold down their NFC North rivals enough to stay around 21 points.
Score: Lions 23, Vikings (+3 at +110) 21
SAINTS PICK at LA RAMS
Thursday, 7:15 p.m. at SoFi Stadium
Let’s be real: The mini-run for the Saints has been fun (for all except those clowns who are rooting for losses), but this is about as bad a matchup as this team has had all season long.
First, coming off a three-game homestand and 11 straight quarters in which you were better than the opponent? Now, you travel across the country on Christmas week to play your second Thursday game of the year, and it’s an opponent they traditionally play awfully against away from the Superdome.
How awfully? Take out a stretch from 1987 to 1994 when they won eight consecutive games in Los Angeles, the Saints are 8-23 in their history away from home against the Rams. And more recently, they have lost four in a row in LA / St. Louis, with the last win coming in the Super Bowl season of 2009 in St. Louis.
As of late, New Orleans has fared well defensively against lesser teams, but not nearly as well against solid passing attacks. And when Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp have been healthy, this team has been nearly unstoppable.
Meanwhile, the Rams have a mediocre run defense, but a not-so-good pass defense. In other words, this will be a Derek Carr vs. Stafford game. Who you taking?
Score: Rams (-4) 30, Saints 21 (Total: Over 46)
OTHER PICKS
Saturday at 7:15 p.m.
Buffalo 27, LA CHARGERS (+12) 19: This goes against my thinking throughout the year that the Bills usually blast bad teams. But how many Chargers do we think couldn’t wait for Brandon Staley to get fired?
I’ll make this short and sweet: I don’t have a whole lot of faith in either this LA defense or Easton Stick, but 11½ points is way too many points to give to a team that just took the weight of an anchor off their necks. (Over 44)
Sunday at noon
Green Bay 20, CAROLINA (+5) 17: In the muck and the wind last week at Bank of America Stadium, the Carolina Panthers had more fun than they likely had at any other point this season in not only beating the Atlanta Falcons but putting a giant dent in their division rivals’ playoff dreams. And it was no skin off their noses, because they don’t even get to keep their No. 1 draft pick next year, as that is going to Chicago for the 2023 top pick.
With weather not expected to be an issue, one can expect the Packers to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive, but it’s not enough to keep Carolina from my projected backdoor cover – if only because the public is overwhelmingly backing Green Bay.(Over 36.5)
Cleveland (-2) 26, HOUSTON 18: I hate when news gets out right before I am set to publish my picks. This game went from one of my best bets with the Browns in a teaser at +8.5 to probably one of the last ones I’d put money on (at least at this number).
So CJ Stroud is out, and winning this week will be much tougher than last week for the Texans, even though they’re at home. (And you simply can’t take the Browns at +4 in a teaser.)
Last week, Houston was mocked by an inferior team as Tennessee wore the “Powder Blues.” Here? They just get to be smacked around a bit by a better team that will force Case Keenum to throw. (Over 42.5)
ATLANTA (-1) 24, Indianapolis 19: Yep, I have another one for you to show how picks can change from day to day. On Monday, this was Falcons +115 on the money line, and it was the No. 1 pick on my card. However, when obvious big money came in on Atlanta and reversed the numbers, the value was lost.
Doesn’t change my opinion though: The Falcons are just like the other two “good” teams in the division … when you think they stink, they turn in a solid performance. When you think they’re turning a corner and ready to maybe take charge, they stink up the joint.
In other words, everyone has given up on them, and maybe +800 to win the NFC South might be worth a buck or two. Meanwhile, I have absolutely no idea how the Colts are tied for the lead in the AFC South with two teams in Jacksonville and Houston that are clearly better than they are. (Under 44)
Seattle (-2.5 at -120) 23, TENNESSEE 18: I don’t want to pull your chain and make you think I have a clue of what’s going to happen here. But I make picks in every game, and this is my best guess. I’d rather put a $5 bill in my pocket than have a free $20 bet on this game.
I have no confidence in Will Levis, but I think the Seabags on a short week after such an emotional victory at home vs. Philly will not be crisp. Just stay away. (Under 41.5)
Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Arizona (+4.5) 28, CHICAGO 27: At first glance, this pick makes little sense. A team from the desert – a three-win team from the desert at that – beating another that’s playing its best football in maybe a few years and is in its home elements in December?
Sometimes, you just have to go with your gut, and my gut tells me Kyler Murray is better than Justin Fields, and he’ll prove it in this game. (Over 44.5)
Monday at 7:15 p.m.
Baltimore (+5.5) 19, SAN FRANCISCO 17: Remember not that long ago when we had a different No. 1 team each week? Now, the 49ers have seemed to occupy permanent residency in that spot. No one can possibly beat this team. They’re THAT good. Blah, blah, blah. (Every year someone is THAT good … until they aren’t.)
You know what? I don’t care how good they are. This line is ridiculous. Giving 5.5 to the clear and obvious (at least right now) best team in the AFC?
And what’s the best thing about this prediction when we get it right? Vegas will drop the NFC from -3 to -2 in Super Bowl futures, and we’ll scoop up on it unlike earlier when we missed it at -1 a few weeks ago. (So, yes, maybe this pick is a little wishful thinking. But I still think it’s an absurd line.) (Under 46.5)
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HOW WE DOIN’?
Note: TIES ARE NOT COUNTED IN MY RECORD, which could result in a different total of games in the “straight up” and “against the spread” categories, as well as with totals.
AGAINST THE SPREAD
Week 15 best bets: 3-2. Season top picks: 40-33 (.548).
Week 15 all picks: 8-6. Season all picks: 117-97 (.547).
STRAIGHT UP (no spread)
Week 15: 12-4. Season: 131-91 (.590).
OVER/UNDER TOTALS
Week 15: 11-5. Season: 128-92 (.582).
SAINTS PICKS
Week 15 pick: Saints 24, Giants 13. (Actual: Saints 24, Giants 6.) Straight up: W, 7-7. Against spread: W, 7-6. Total (Under 38.5): W, 8-5.
PREVIOUS COLUMNS
(click on week to view)
3-2 best bets; 8-6 ATS; 12-4 straight up; 11-5 over/unders
3-1 best bets; 10-4 ATS; 10-5 straight up; 7-8 over/unders
3-2 best bets; 9-4 ATS; 8-5 straight up; 8-5 over/unders
1-4 best bets; 5-10 ATS; 8-8 straight up, 10-6 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 4-9 ATS; 8-6 straight up; 7-7 over/unders
: 1-3 best bets; 7-6 ATS; 6-8 straight up; 6-8 over/unders
4-1 best bets; 11-3 ATS; 9-5 straight up; 8-5 over/unders
3-2 best bets; 9-6 ATS; 10-6 straight up; 7-9 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 7-6 ATS; 5-8 straight up; 9-3 over/unders
4-1 best bets; 7-7 ATS; 13-2 straight up; 9-6 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 8-6 ATS; 7-7 straight up; 9-5 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 8-8 ATS; 10-6 straight up; 9-7 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 9-6 ATS; 7-8 straight up; 8-7 over/unders
4-1 best bets; 7-8 ATS; 9-7 straight up; 9-7 over/unders
4-1 best bets; 8-8 ATS; 10-6 straight up; 11-4 over/unders