There are so many things that cross my mind during any given NFL week, and I have finally decided to start taking notes on my phone so I can remember to pass them along here in my random thoughts.
With that, I have maybe the best lead in to the picks column yet this season, which is apropos since . All we needed to do was talk about Christmas money, and voila! So, I’ll say it again … Ho ho ho.
No. 1: Quarterback play overall this season has been some of the worst I have seen in decades, and it’s a good thing it’s projected the 2024 NFL draft could be one of the top QB classes in recent memory.
With that, I get if there aren’t a ton of great starting quarterbacks, the number of capable backup quarterbacks are even less. But still. Coaches deciding to put injured signal-callers on the field is mind-boggling. The first one who comes to mind is simple, because I was there to watch Derek Carr muster a paltry 37 passing yards through three quarters vs. Carolina.
I am not exaggerating. (Or whatever the opposite of exaggerating is.) Really, 13.3 passing yards per quarter. He certainly looked like a guy who was concussed and playing with three broken ribs. But who would rather go with Jameis Winston, who might just be the best backup in the league? Nah, that would make too much sense.
And then there’s Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. Has anyone ever heard of a guy with a high-ankle sprain coming back the next week? Yeah, that worked out well for Doug Pederson. (Combine that with some of his decisions, and Cleveland owes Duval a “Thank You!”)
No. 2: Every now and then I get things right. Like really right. That was last week, as we already mentioned. While we were 3-1-1 in our best bets, some of the picks I made after I already published my column made Week 14 the most profitable of the year for me.
I am not telling you this to brag, but rather because I am kicking myself for the money-line parlay I clicked in and then backed out of – which would have made for the best football day since Super Bowl whatever with the Rams and Bengals. (Nothing will beat that, I don’t think.) Now, I won a nice one that was nearly 10-1 on the money line with Cleveland, New Orleans, San Francisco and the New York Jets.
However, I was thinking of going crazy with Chicago, the Jets, Tampa Bay and the Giants, but I said “Nah, this is too nuts.” What would that $20 wager boosted by 33 percent on Caesars have paid me? Oh, only $1,218.
The what-ifs. Aren’t they fun? (They’re even more fun when your fantasy football team missed the playoffs by ONE point. But I know: No one cares about my fantasy football team.)
In my last random thought of the week, I go to the story of the month: The Giants’ Tommy DeVito. Here in New Orleans, fans are miserable with their 6-7 team, but yet other cities have 6-7 and 5-8 teams they’re thrilled about.
Why? Because football is supposed to be fun, and the Giants are having fun right now. (Which made this Sunday’s game even tougher to pick.)
What stood out was a postgame interview after the G-Men had finished their upset of the Packers and Lisa Salters asked DeVito why they’re winning and why they’re having fun: “This is a kid’s game,” he said.
Puts it all in perspective. If only everyone could realize that their chance to have fun doesn’t last very long.
Let’s have some fun here and keep the winning going. (And keep putting some presents under the tree all at the same time.)
NOTES: All spreads, money lines and over/under totals (as of late Wednesday evening) are provided by , which is the official odds partner of . Home team is listed in CAPS.
WEEK 15: THE TOP 5 BEST BETS
1, Money line, Dallas (+105) over BUFFALO / Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
I heard some betting experts earlier this week talking about how they like Buffalo because they “need this game like blood” to stay in playoff contention in the AFC.
My first reaction was: Well, the Cowboys need it just as bad. They have fought their asses off to get back on top of the NFC East and now have a legitimate shot not only at a division title but at the No. 1 seed in the conference and the only playoff bye from that side.
So what gives here? It comes down to analysis, and one thing I know is that the Cowboys are as good or better than anyone else in forcing turnovers, and Josh Allen – although he has been better as of late – knows how to cough it up.
In fact, in Dallas’ three losses this season, they have just one turnover and a margin of minus-5. In their 10 wins, they have collected 20 turnovers with a margin of plus-15. And Buffalo? They have turned it over at least once in nine consecutive games this season.
Make it 10.
Score: Cowboys 26, Bills 23 (Total: Under 50.5)
2, Teaser, Texans and Steelers
Teaser explanation: At most books, a bettor can parlay two teams in a “teaser” and get 6 points of cushion for each bet. However, it costs -125 to play and – like a parlay – both legs must hit to cash the ticket.
Leg 1, Pittsburgh (+8.5) over INDIANAPOLIS / Saturday at 3:30 p.m.
Just a few weeks ago, the Steelers looked like they were a lock to be the surprise playoff team of the season, and now they are fighting to remain relevant after home losses to the lowly Patriots and Cardinals.
Indeed, Pittsburgh and Coach Mike Tomlin will be treating this one much like a playoff game, as the Steelers currently are in the 6-spot in the AFC, while the Colts are in the 7 spot.
Even with Mitchell Trubisky back behind center at least one more week for Kenny Pickett, it just seems to be a logical teaser leg for a Pittsburgh team that hasn’t lost three straight in December since 2020, and that was following an 11-0 start when they had some cushion.
Score: Steelers (+2.5) 28, Colts 24 (Total: Over 42)
Leg 2, Tampa Bay (+9) over GREEN BAY / Sunday at noon
We’re going back to the well here, as we’ll defy the jinx and tell you that Tampa Bay has now covered a teaser leg in eight straight games after we took them last week in Atlanta.
It wasn’t long ago I was completely dismissing them and their chances to win the NFC South, but I can no longer do so. If one wants to argue whether Baker Mayfield is a viable long-term solution at quarterback, that’s fair, but no one can question his toughness. In fact, this SOB might be the toughest QB in football.
And here in a game at Lambeau where the forecast is sunny with little to no wind and temps around 40 in December? That will seem like Heaven – and an early Christmas present to the Bucs.
The Packers aren’t as good as they played against Kansas City 2 weeks ago, and they aren’t as bad as the team that showed up last week in the Meadowlands. Either way, I see this as a one-score game, and we’re gonna go with the outright upset (but take the nine points in a teaser as the best bet).
Score: Bucs (+3 at +100) 27, Packers 24 (Total: Over 41.5)
3, DETROIT (-4) over Denver / Saturday at 7:15 p.m.
This just seems like an auto Broncos pick, doesn’t it? Well, that’s what plenty of amateur bettors will be thinking, as Denver and Sean Payton have gotten themselves back in the playoff hunt, while Detroit is, well, being Detroit.
The thing is, the two losses the Lions have suffered over the past 3 weeks have come against division teams who know them as well as anyone. Meanwhile, they are 3-0 vs. the AFC West this season, and can you think of anyone Dan Campbell would love to beat more than his old boss?
Regular readers of this column know I am the furthest thing from a fan of Jared Goff, but I think he has a good game here against a Broncos team that has to be tired in finishing up a three-game road stretch.
Score: Lions 27, Broncos 21 (Total: Over 47.5)
4, Teaser, Minnesota (+9) over CINCINNATI AND over 34
Teaser explanation: At most books, a bettor can parlay two teams in a “teaser” and get 6 points of cushion for each bet. However, it costs -125 to play and – like a parlay – both legs must hit to cash the ticket.
Last week, the Vikings and topped the Raiders 3-0 in one of the more boring football games in recent memory. Combine that with the 12-10 loss the week before, and voila … overcompensation! With a decent weather forecast for Saturday, this total should be more like 43 or 44, but we know Drunk Joe only remembers the recent past.
Brian Flores is getting a ton of credit for how well the Vikings defense has been playing, but they have had to because of the inefficiencies on offense with Josh Dobbs. Now?
This could be one heck of a fun game to watch. (Snickering in the background with someone whispering “This dude is cray.”)
That’s right. I said it. Nick Mullens vs. Jake Browning. FUN. Seriously! Both of these offenses are capable, and Minnesota should get a charge with Mullens replacing Dobbs AND Justin Jefferson likely back in the fold (for a full game this time).
Therefore, I also like a close game that comes down to the wire. PS (and fully aware I am jinxing myself AGAIN), the Vikings haven’t lost by more than one score all year long.
Score: Bengals 30, Vikings (+3) 28 (Total: Over 40)
5, CAROLINA (+3 at -105) over Atlanta / Sunday at noon
You know what the Grinch might say about this line: Stink, stank, stunk. (He’d say that about the Panthers, too.) And, oh, how we love the Grinch. If something makes no sense, someone who knows what they’re doing is trying to catch us in a trap.
Do you know a single Mabel on the planet who will bet on Carolina? And when Mabel is making her fruitcakes she zigs, which means it’s definitely time for us to zag.
If you’re new to this column, you’re probably wondering what the hell I am talking about, so I’ll make it super easy: If the public is all over a line, then we’re going the other way, because Vegas rarely loses. And this might be one of the more public games of the year with everyone betting on the Falcons to pummel the lowly Panthers.
However, Atlanta has shown they know how to give away games with the best of them, and can’t you just see this one ending 16-14?
Score: Falcons 16, Panthers 14 (Total: Under 35)
SAINTS PICK vs. NY GIANTS
Sunday, noon at Caesars Superdome
First off, lemme say if someone gave me the choice of putting $20 in my pocket or a $100 free bet on this game, I would take the $20. In other words, I don’t know if there is any sort of outcome that would surprise me.
The left side of my brain says: “Look, dummy. This might be the most simple handicap you’ll ever put together. The Saints suck. They’re going to put an injured Derek Carr out there again because they’re not smart enough to let Jameis play AND they’re afraid of a quarterback controversy.
“Meanwhile, have you watched these fighting G-Men? They’ve become one of the fun stories of the second half of the season. I mean, Tommy DeVito! His momma is still cooking for him and making his bed! What’s not to love? Oh, and PS: Who in the blankety-blank-blank are the Saints to be giving six points to ANYBODY?!?”
However, the right side of my brain says: “You’re thinking too much, and you’re about to short-circuit what little bit of reserve fuel we have up here. The Giants sucked way worse than the Saints a month ago, and why are they better now? Because they beat the Commanders, Patriots and Packers (after an emotionally charged victory over the Chiefs)? As Daddy DeVito might say, “Fuhgedaboutit.”
“For crying out loud, they had a game 6 weeks ago when they had minus-9 yards passing. They recently gave up a combined 1,044 yards of total offense in back-to-back weeks to Washington and Dallas. They’re third-worst in the NFL against the run, so it really doesn’t matter who plays quarterback for the Saints (and we’re assuming Taysom plays). You might not like it, but you have to take ’em, ESPECIALLY because here’s another case of the public overwhelmingly backing the Giants.”
So with that, I don’t know which side of the brain is more dominant, because I was asleep that day in Biology class. Well, I was really sleeping almost every day in Biology class.
It’s the latter handicap that makes the most sense to me, so as much as I might want to join the Who Dats and go against the home team, I can’t. At least not this week. (But I will give you a spoiler alert for next week and let you know I might bet the farm on the Rams on a short week in Los Angeles if the Saints are favored.)
Score: Saints (-6) 24, Giants 13 (Total: Under 38.5)
OTHER PICKS
Thursday at 7:15 p.m.
LA Chargers (+3) 21, LAS VEGAS 20: This is one of a couple picks I had to move out of my best bets because of big-time changes to totals on Wednesday afternoon. The original number here was 33, which made a potential teaser leg at 27. However, as they often do, the books became a bit wiser and realized they had to raise it.
While I still like the over, I really am more on the side of the Chargers now, as despite the fact Easton Stick is starting the rest of season, I think the Raiders are ready to make that slide toward top-5 draft pick land after an initial surge from interim coach Antonio Pierce.
And while anyone who has read one or two of these columns this year or last knows I think Brandon Staley is awful, I do think he realizes his only chance to stay is to win out. THAT may be enough for him to win this one. (Over 34.5)
Sunday at noon
CLEVELAND (-3) 26, Chicago 21: Here’s a second one I had to move, as I nearly put this over in a teaser. It’s also another example of how not playing something you really like early in the week can go against you in a hurry. It’s a sign you’re probably on the right track, but that’s of little consolation now.
Anyway, I love the way Justin Fields as been playing since his return, and clearly Joe Flacco can get more out of the Browns offense than anyone since Deshaun Watson. In the end, I go with Cleveland, who is fighting for a playoff spot, while the Bears are due to turn back into the Bears any day now. (Over 38.5)
Kansas City 20, NEW ENGLAND (+9.5) 12: What in the holy heck is wrong with the Chiefs? I mean, googly-moogly.
This is a spot over the past few years where I would jump on KC, simply because they don’t play multiple games in a row this poorly and HAD to rebound. But I have seen enough to think maybe they really are that mediocre.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not putting any stock in Bailey Zappe or the Pats’ offense, but playing in Foxborough this time of year just isn’t fun – even when it’s supposed to be (relatively) warm for December. I want no part of this in any shape or form, and it wouldn’t shock me if Mahomes and company were still stewing over last week’s debacle and laid yet another egg. (Under 37)
MIAMI (-8.5) 23, NY Jets 6: Obviously, as right as I was about the Jets last week in calling for the outright upset, I was just as wrong about Miami. What I haven’t been wrong about is telling you these Dolphins are not THAT good, and they’re certainly not consistent enough to win anything super important.
With Buffalo playing later in the day, this will be super important for Miami, which could be losing grip on its super hold in the AFC East. That should be enough to wake up this team – for now.
Interestingly, I expect one of the Dolphins’ best defensive efforts of the season, and for Zach Wilson to turn back into Zach Wilson in an ugly weather game that could see rain on an already soaked field. (Under 37)
Houston (+2.5) 20, TENNESSEE 13: It’s so easy to pick against the Texans now that CJ Stroud likely will miss Sunday’s game with a concussion. Here’s the thing, though: Is anyone really fooled by the Titans’ victory Monday night?
These teams have played many close games over the recent past, and while I certainly was a big doubter of this Texans team to start the season, I get the excitement. Are they ahead of schedule? No doubt, but still in the playoff hunt, I believe DeMeco Ryans will rally this team and have them playing their best.
Besides, what they do best other than throw the football is to stop the run, and that could make things tough on Derrick Henry. It’s a bad spot here for the Titans, who are all but done, and had their “playoff victory” against the Dolphins. Now, they get an upcoming team on a short week. (Under 37.5)
Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
LA RAMS 31, Washington (+6.5) 27: Another fun game, and another one that is very lopsided when it comes to money. As of me typing this late Wednesday, NINETY-SIX percent of the cash is on the Rams, according to PFF and CBS, and I can’t imagine it would be much different elsewhere.
Here’s the thing though: The Commanders have already resigned themselves to the fact Ron Rivera will be fired when this season is over and massive changes are headed their way, so I expect them to be past the doldrums and have one of their better efforts. Meanwhile, the Rams can score, but I am not sure they will be able to stop Washington here.
Either way, this one won’t be on my card, but it very well could be one the Red Zone Channel pays a lot of attention to late Sunday afternoon. (Over 50)
San Francisco 23, ARIZONA (+12.5) 20: About five or six times a year I get bright red lights flashing in the back of my head when doing a handicap. This is one of them.
All I hear over and over again is how the 49ers are the best team in like 10 years – and this comes 6 weeks after they finished off a three-game losing streak. Remember when those same experts were questioning whether they belonged in the top 10 and whether Brock Purdy was really a starting quarterback?
Look, I certainly have the Niners at the top of my list, and in no way did I contemplate making this a best bet, but I could really see the Cardinals making a game of this – just as they did in beating Dallas early in the season. AT least scaring some of the Niners’ fans for a bit.
Also, San Francisco has the No. 1 seed in their sights, and could easily be focused on a potential Super Bowl preview with Baltimore on Christmas night. (Under 48)
Sunday at 7:20 p.m.
Baltimore (-3 at -125) 29, JACKSONVILLE 24: Interestingly, Duval has been a tough place for Baltimore to play over the years, as they have won there just once over the course of the past 22 years, but they’re too good to be stopped by a team going in the wrong direction. In other words, this is going to be a rare time when I not only buck a trend, but I go with the public.
Until I am convinced Trevor Lawrence (high ankle sprain) is healthy, in no way can I go with the Jags, because I certainly don’t have much faith in their defense or whether their coach will go for a fourth down or 2-point conversion at the most inopportune time.
The Ravens are the best team in the AFC, and unlike the aforementioned San Francisco 49ers, they don’t have the luxury of looking ahead to that marquee matchup next week. We’ll learn a lot about the hierarchy of this conference Sunday. (Over 42.5)
Monday at 7:15 p.m.
SEATTLE (+4) 23, Philadelphia 20: Don’t the Eagles just look like a worn-out team that has just been run through the gauntlet? Well, I am not sure about the worn-out part, but after games in succession against Miami, Washington, Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco and Dallas again, they most certainly have been through the gauntlet of all gauntlets.
And now that it gets “easier,” are we supposed to think all will be right for them? I don’t. Besides, the Seahawks need to go at least 3-1 down the stretch to make the playoffs … and maybe 4-0.
This pick is assuming Geno Smith is back from his groin injury, and I am not going to put more than one unit on it, but sort of like Jacksonville, I need to see Philly is OK before I back them again. (Under 47.5)
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HOW WE DOIN’?
Note: TIES ARE NOT COUNTED IN MY RECORD, which could result in a different total of games in the “straight up” and “against the spread” categories, as well as with totals.
AGAINST THE SPREAD
Week 14 best bets: 3-1. Season top picks: 37-31 (.544).
Week 14 all picks: 10-4. Season all picks: 109-91 (.545).
STRAIGHT UP (no spread)
Week 14: 10-5. Season: 119-87 (.578).
OVER/UNDER TOTALS
Week 14: 7-8. Season: 117-87 (.574).
SAINTS PICKS
Week 14 pick: Saints 26, Panthers 17. (Actual: Saints 28, Panthers 6.) Straight up: W, 6-7. Against spread: W, 6-6. Total (Over 37.5): L, 7-5.
PREVIOUS COLUMNS
(click on week to view)
3-1 best bets; 10-4 ATS; 10-5 straight up; 7-8 over/unders
3-2 best bets; 9-4 ATS; 8-5 straight up; 8-5 over/unders
1-4 best bets; 5-10 ATS; 8-8 straight up, 10-6 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 4-9 ATS; 8-6 straight up; 7-7 over/unders
: 1-3 best bets; 7-6 ATS; 6-8 straight up; 6-8 over/unders
4-1 best bets; 11-3 ATS; 9-5 straight up; 8-5 over/unders
3-2 best bets; 9-6 ATS; 10-6 straight up; 7-9 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 7-6 ATS; 5-8 straight up; 9-3 over/unders
4-1 best bets; 7-7 ATS; 13-2 straight up; 9-6 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 8-6 ATS; 7-7 straight up; 9-5 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 8-8 ATS; 10-6 straight up; 9-7 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 9-6 ATS; 7-8 straight up; 8-7 over/unders
4-1 best bets; 7-8 ATS; 9-7 straight up; 9-7 over/unders
4-1 best bets; 8-8 ATS; 10-6 straight up; 11-4 over/unders