NFL WEEK 10: THE 5 BEST BETS
NOTES: All spreads, money lines and over/under totals (as of Tuesday) are provided by DraftKings. Home team is listed in CAPS.
BYES: Cleveland, Green Bay, Las Vegas and Seattle
1, TAMPA BAY (+6) over San Francisco / Sunday at noon
This was always going to be in my top 5, but I nearly tempered this and moved it down a bit because of the Bucs’ emotional loss last Monday night.
In the end, asking, “Are we saying Tampa would be a 10- or 11-point underdog in San Fran?” put this one up there as my value of the week. I have this as 49ers -1, and this is only because it is San Francisco it’s well north of that.
I also get this is a short week, but oddsmakers and prognosticators (including me) continue to underestimate Tampa Bay and how competitive they play against just about everyone.
Meanwhile, I am not sure why the 49ers continue to get so much love. They are 1-2 on the road this season and have had trouble with mid-level teams.
Score: 49ers 27, Bucs 24 (Total: Over 50.5)
2, New England at CHICAGO under 38.5 / Sunday at noon
So I missed with picking an over last week with the Bears, which would usually eliminate me from picking them in a total the following week. However, this is a special situation.
The weather in the Windy City is supposed to live up to its name this weekend, and if some rain is sprinkled in, that would lower the productiveness of these below-average offenses even lower.
I do think the Bears will be able to rebound, because they have played well against crappy teams, but I am not sure either will put up more than 20 points in this mess.
Score: Bears (-6) 17, Patriots 8
3, HOUSTON (+3.5) over Detroit / Sunday at 7:20 p.m.
“Hey Derry, you didn’t learn your lesson last week?” Yeah, yeah, I get that I am playing with fire when going against the almighty Lions – especially after they destroyed Green Bay.
So let’s try this again … Here’s a trend I love – besides the fact that the entire betting public likely will be on Detroit here – the Lions were in similar situations twice last year, as this will be the fourth road game in five outings. Late in 2023 when they did the same thing, they lost outright at Dallas in the fourth road game (the week after losing at Minnesota).
Also earlier in the season, they got crushed at Baltimore in the third of a four-game swing after winning their previous three games by 14 or more points.
In other words, the Lions get a little big for their britches sometimes, and this seems like a perfect place to do it. Especially when everyone thinks they’re the greatest team since the undefeated Patriots.
As for Houston, while they likely will be without defensive end Will Anderson, it looks like they will get wide receiver Nico Collins back, and that’s big.
Score: Texans 25, Lions 22 (Total: Under 49)
4, JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Minnesota / Sunday at noon
Well, last week all the favorites but one, so maybe I am just overcompensating here in picking a bunch of dogs.
Look, the Jaguars have actually been profitable for me as of late, after I was sure Doug Pederson was halfway to Imsofiredville. Even though there’s little chance he will survive the season and probably is one embarrassing loss away from being gone, this team keeps fighting for him.
And I think this spread is highly overcooked. That, and the Vikings haven’t won a road game by this margin since Week 1 at the lowly Giants, and I am trying to understand why some continue to overrate Sam Darnold and this team that I expect to begin a descent back toward the pack.
Score: Vikings 24, Jaguars 23 (Total: Over 45)
5, KANSAS CITY (-7.5) over Denver / Sunday at noon
OK, so I had to pick one favorite for crying out loud. I had been under the assumption that Kansas City didn’t often cover when they were big favorites, but another glance told me something different.
While they have failed to cover both games this season in which they were favorites of 8 or more, they covered in that scenario in five of seven games in 2023 and six of the previous 11 before that.
When it comes to Denver, yes, they finally snapped a 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs last season, but that doesn’t change my mind here. The Broncos haven’t won in Kansas City since 2015 and five of those losses have been by double digits.
The Chiefs escaped at home on Monday night last week. I expect this one to be much easier.
Score: Chiefs 26, Broncos 13 (Total: Under 42)
SAINTS PICK vs ATLANTA
Atlanta (-3.5) over NEW ORLEANS
A new coach and a new attitude, huh? Well, I am not going to waste any time here … I think this team’s problems go well beyond the coach, and I just can’t buy into the Saints’ fortunes being turned around because Darren Rizzi is wearing the headset instead of Dennis Allen.
Fact is, I have been saying for weeks the Falcons were about to take off, and I still believe that. I have them as the seventh-best team in football and the Saints 28th. I have a hard time understanding why this spread is only a hook beyond a field goal.
While I think it will stay close for a bit, I could easily see Atlanta running away with this in the end and the “Dirty Bird” majority crowd having a fun day in the Dome.
The only thing that kept this out of my best bets is the fact NFL teams unquestionably historically get a boost the week after making a coaching change. However, I think that’s already been baked into this line.
Score: Falcons 31, Saints 23 (Total: Over 46)
OTHER PICKS
Thursday at 7:20 p.m.
Baltimore 29, CINCINNATI (+6) 24 (Under 53.5)
NOTE: My power ratings have this at -6 – same as the spread. While I have done well on Thursdays this season, this is a stayaway.
Sunday at 8:30 a.m.
NY Giants 19, Carolina 17 (Under 40.5)
NOTE: This was my sixth pick in best bets, but I have been burned enough by the Panthers. Still, who in the hell are the Giants to be laying a touchdown on a neutral field?!?
Sunday at noon
Buffalo (-3.5) 24, INDIANAPOLIS 20 (Under 48)
Pittsburgh (+3) 21, WASHINGTON 19 (Under 45.5)
Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
LA CHARGERS 18, Tennessee (+7.5) 13 (Under 39)
Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
ARIZONA (+1) 27, NY Jets 25 (Over 46)
Philadelphia 23, DALLAS (+7) 19 (Under 43)
NOTE: UPSET ALERT! Wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Cowboys play inspired with Micah Parsons back and Dak Prescott on IR. Could be a rough game for Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.)
Monday at 7:15 p.m.
LA RAMS (-1) 30, Miami 27 (Over 50)
NOTE: I just have a feeling this could be one of the more entertaining games of the season with two teams on the fringe of being relevant just past the midway point.
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HOW WE DOIN?
Note: TIES ARE NOT COUNTED IN MY RECORD, which could result in a different total of games in the “straight up” and “against the spread” categories, as well as with totals.
AGAINST THE SPREAD
Week 9 best bets: 2-3; Season 23-21 (.523). Week 9 all picks: 10-5; Season 68-63 (.519).
STRAIGHT UP (no spread)
Week 9: 10-5. Season: 85-50 (.630).
OVER/UNDER TOTALS
Week 9: 9-6. Season: 66-69 (.489).
SAINTS PICKS
Week 9 pick: Saints 24, Panthers 18. (Actual: Panthers 23, Saints 22.) Straight up: L, 5-4. Against spread (Panthers +7): W, 4-5.
PREVIOUS COLUMNS
(click on week to view)
2-3 best bets; 10-5 ATS; 10-5 straight up; 9-6 over/unders
4-1 best bets; 10-6 ATS; 12-4 straight up; 7-9 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 7-8 ATS; 11-4 straight up; 5-10 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 9-5 ATS; 11-3 straight up; 10-4 over/unders
4-1 best bets; 5-7 ATS; 6-8 straight up; 3-11 over/unders
2-3 best bets; 7-7 ATS; 8-6 straight up; 7-7 over/unders
3-2 best bets; 9-6 ATS; 8-7 straight up; 8-7 over/unders
3-2 best bets; 8-8 ATS; 9-7 straight up; 8-7 over/unders
1-3 best bets; 3-11 ATS; 10-6 straight up; 7-8 over/unders