Deep into his weekly telephone q-and-a with reporters last week, U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy said something that was probably more revealing than heโd intended.
The subject was Cassidyโs call for his opponents in the May 16 Republican primary โ specifically U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow โ to , and my colleague Tyler Bridges was asking him about his own refusal to debate his opponents when he last ran for reelection in 2020.
โI was going to win that race,โ he said. โFrankly, thatโs a [race] where a debate would not have made a difference.โ
I canโt endorse the sentiment but Iโll give Cassidy this: He was right not to worry. Just six short years ago, his party ID, incumbency and rising seniority were more than enough to get him reelected without breaking a sweat.
How quaint that confidence looks from the perspective of 2026.
And how ironic, given that Cassidy was once on the cutting edge of the sort of political change that could now sweep him right out of office.
Consider how, 12 years ago, he swept in by taking out an accomplished incumbent.
Back then, U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu represented a dying breed in the Senate: She was a Democrat who still won elections โ albeit narrowly โ after her state had shifted well into Republican territory in national politics. She did it by rising in the ranks while focusing relentlessly on state needs, including appropriations, and siding with Democrats on many national issues but leveraging her vote on close calls.
Cassidyโs challenge to her amounted to a reality check. By 2014 Senate elections around the country were hinging much more on national party alignment than on local concerns, and voters were growing less willing to split their votes between parties.
In fact, Cassidy was so confident that linking Landrieu to then-President Barack Obama at every opportunity would work that he didnโt do many debates. And again, he was right.
One more thing about 2014: I remember asking Cassidy why ถถา๕h would want to give up that focus on state concerns. He told me that it wouldnโt, that he would do the same thing, but as a Republican.
And including with the massive 2021 infrastructure bill, when he worked with congressional Democrats and President Joe Biden to bring home investments on everything from broadband to flood mitigation, even as all his ถถา๕h Republican colleagues โ Letlow included โ voted no.
Under the rules of 2014 or even 2020, accomplishments like that, on top of his seniority and committee assignments and even a major chairmanship, would be enough to protect any Republican in this red state.
In the eyes of some, they still are. Hereโs how state Senate President Cameron Henry, who still practices that older brand of politics in Baton Rouge and who backs Cassidyโs reelection, recently put it:
โHeโs on Finance, heโs the chair of Health. I mean, those are monumental things for ถถา๕h. That is very difficult to replace. And heโs in the group that can negotiate. The group in the middle is the one thatโs negotiated the best stuff in ถถา๕h,โ Henry said.
And yet, like Landrieu, Cassidy too is at risk of being consigned to history โ if none of that matters anymore, if all that does matter is how loyal a Republican is to the current Republican president.
Certainly he understands that the new rules put him at a disadvantage. After he followed his conscience and voted to convict then ex-President Donald Trump in his second impeachment in 2021, Cassidy came crawling back into the Trump tent in humiliating fashion, even providing the key vote for a Health and Human Services secretary who is out to undermine the vaccines that he, as a physician, knows save lives.
Treasurer John Fleming understands the new rules, too. A former Trump aide who failed to win the presidentโs nod, Fleming has a billboard in Baton Rouge showing the two of them side-by-side anyway.
Itโs Letlow whoโs following the front-runner strategy this time. Sheโs the one who has the presidentโs endorsement. Sheโs the one who is ducking television debates, proposing instead to meet only on a friendly radio show hosted by . Sheโs the one who is acting as confident in her theory of the election โ that Trumpโs endorsement trumps all โ as Cassidy was in 2014 and 2020 in his.
Or maybe Iโm wrong. Maybe sheโs got more to tell the voters about her own views and priorities and philosophy of the job than simply
You know what would be a good way for her to start? Agree to debate.