This may surprise some, but Black are not likely to elect a Black mayor.ย
New Orleans is still a . But there aren't as many Black voters as there used to be, Black people aren't a monolith and the Black vote will split.
In the 1970s, when Dutch Morial ran for and became the city's first Black elected mayor, the Black population was ready to see someone like them in the mayor's office. There was excitement and high energy about the possibility. And there were enough Black voters to make it happen.
Morial won election with more than 95% of the Black vote and enough White support to push him over a White opponent.ย
Since 2000, the city's overall has declined, and its Black population has shrunk at a higher rate than its White population. Meanwhile, thousands of Hispanics have moved in.
That changes the next mayoral election.
In 2010, Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu became New Orleans' first White mayor since his father, Moon Landrieu, was mayor 32 years prior. He did it winning more than .
In 2017, City Council member LaToya Cantrell and former Municipal Court Judge Desiree Charbonnet at about 40% each with another Black candidate, former judge Michael Bagneris, earning 9% in the primary election. Cantrell captured 69% of the Black vote in the runoff to become the city's first woman mayor.
This year, no mayoral candidateย โ Black, White, Hispanic or otherย โ will get anything close to 95%, and probably not 63%, of the Black vote. At least not in the October primary.ย
Political coalitions have changed through the decades, nationally and locally.
Women voters have been more important in recent decades, particularly Black women voters. I know Black women campaigning for each of the three candidates this year.
In New Orleans, there isn't a secure Black majority of voters, according to John Couvillon, of JMC Analytics and Polling. There are more Black registered voters than White registered voters, he said, but recent electoral history shows that a higher percentage of White voters cast ballots. The actual voting breakdown is closer to 50-50, meaning the Black vote is an important base but candidates also have to rally enough White, Hispanic, Asian and other voters.
Couvillonย did September and May polls about the favorability of multiple elected officials, some 2025 candidates and more. According to Couvillon, the first was paid for by a group of "community and business leaders" who did not want to be identified and the second was paid for by a PAC "not affiliated with a candidate" and the group "did not want to be identified."
Remember, polls are a snapshot in time, and the paying client determines which, if any, results are shared.
In September's poll, former Criminal Court Judge Arthur Hunter polled at 2%, City Council member Oliver Thomas polled at 17% and City Council Vice President Helena Moreno polled at 37%. Inย ,ย Hunter jumped to 11%, Thomas rose to 23% and Moreno leapt to 52%.
That's great for Moreno, good for Thomas and promisingย for Hunter. There are other candidates in the race, but these three will split most of the Black vote. Thomas, who has won each of his City Council races and has strong Black community support, is capturing most of the Black vote at the moment. Moreno, who has won every election she's run since 2010 and done so with lots of Black support, is behind Thomas but doing well enough with Black voters.
Hunter has been seen as a long shot, but moving from 2% to 11% shows momentumย โ and that could hurt Thomas. Thomas has to fire up more Black voters while building more of a coalition. He has the kind of street cred that isn't captured in most polls, but that has to translate into votes. Thomas needs 50%-60% of the Black vote to have a shot at getting into a runoff with Moreno. Think Ray Nagin versus Mitch Landrieu in 2006. Nagin, who was elected with strong White support the first time, won reelection with about 65% of the Black vote.
Hunter has to continue to build momentum and move from low double digits to at least high teens this summer to attract more donors.
is still important in mayoral politicsย โ even if the math is complicated.ย