Most election watchers expect Democrats to wrest from Republicans in November. Some already take this outcome for granted. They point to economic discontent, the Iran war and Donald Trump’s weak poll numbers as evidence that a Democratic takeover is likely.
They may be right. But while Democrats have early momentum, the battle for the House is still to be won.
A district-by-district examination of all 435 House races shows that the Democratic gains many expect have yet to jell. Redistricting in some places further complicates the picture. This means the outcome will likely depend on how individual campaigns in swing districts unfold and which party’s turnout efforts prove most effective.
A useful way to assess the election is through House ratings compiled by election handicappers. Averaging the ratings produced by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball shows Republicans with a clear lead in 204 districts and Democrats with a clear lead in 193. That leaves 38 competitive seats in play.
Democrats have more ground to cover, but they have plenty of ways to do it. Still, they’ve yet to do it.
America’s Founders envisioned the House of Representatives as “the people’s house,” with short two-year terms designed to keep lawmakers closely tied to public sentiment. As such, midterm elections often become a referendum on the sitting president.
Since John F. Kennedy entered the White House, the president’s party has lost an average of 28 House seats in midterm elections. The worst drubbing came during Barack Obama’s first midterm, when Democrats lost 63 seats. The next-largest defeat was the 54 seats Democrats lost during Bill Clinton’s first term. Republicans have also suffered major setbacks, losing 48 seats in the aftermath of Richard Nixon’s resignation and 41 seats during Trump’s first term.
As House campaigns intensify, national political currents will increasingly shape the battlefield. There is widespread discontent with Trump’s performance as president. To wit: The average of recent national polls puts his job approval rating at 40%, with 58% disapproving. According to the latest Economist/YouGov poll, just 23% of independents — voters who often decide close elections — approve of Trump’s performance.
Trump’s handling of the situation in Iran has also become a political liability. Only 33% of voters approve of his approach, while 61% disapprove.
But the rising cost of living is the Republicans’ worst domestic headache. Trump rode voter frustration over inflation to victory in 2024, but the issue has since turned against him. According to the Economist/YouGov survey, only 28% approve of Trump’s handling of inflation, while a striking 67% disapprove.
These numbers help explain why so many analysts anticipate significant Republican losses this year. But there’s another side to the story that may be overlooked: Voters are almost equally dissatisfied with both parties.
The poll found that 57% of voters view the Democratic Party unfavorably, while 56% view the Republican Party unfavorably. It’s obvious to everybody, except maybe the Democratic leadership in Washington, that their party is still carrying heavy baggage associated with unpopular progressive policies. This gives Republicans something to run against — or, more accurately, something to keep running against.
Whether Republicans can capitalize on this opportunity depends largely on Trump himself. What he says and does will shape his party’s fortunes far more than anything Republican congressional candidates say or do. This uncertainty keeps GOP strategists awake at night.
For Republicans, Trump remains a double-edged sword. He commands a loyal following that can boost GOP voter turnout, especially in Republican-leaning districts. Yet the intensity of anti-Trump feelings in swing districts has become so ferocious that it could more than offset the advantage.
Trump’s insistence on personal loyalty presents another challenge. It limits the ability of Republican candidates to pivot away from the White House on controversial issues. Of course, Democrats have a similar problem keeping their left-leaning base happy when they try to move to the center on key issues.
The race for control of the House is on, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The outcome will form the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency — and what happens thereafter.